Global food prices are on the ascent again with the FAO Food Price Index –
a food basket composed of cereals, oilseeds, dairy, meat and sugar – registering
four straight monthly rises. The index averaged 168 points in November, the highest
since September 2008. That was still 21 percent below its peak in June 2008. Prior
to the price spike of 2007/08, the index never exceeded 120 points and, for most
of the time, was below 100points.
However it seems that market conditions are different from those that triggered
the food price crisis that started two years ago.
Today, world cereal stocks are at more comfortable levels, although some markets
are facing tight conditions. In general supplies held by exporters are more adequate
to respond to rising demand than they were during the price surge period. For
example, the wheat stocks-to-use ratio in major exporting countries has risen
from 12 percent to 20 percent this season. However, macro-economic
factors, exchange rates, volatile oil prices and, once again, rising liquidity
stemming from exceptionally low interest rates continue to generate uncertainty,
which food markets have to live with.
As to meat, world meat prices were an average 8 percent lower in the first ten
months of 2009 than the same period last year. Lower global imports are expected
to depress world trade in all various meat categories in 2009 but a modest recovery
is expected in 2010.
Find out more on the food outlook at
http://www.fao.org/docrep/012/ak341e/ak341e09.htm
[08/02/2010]